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Afghanistan Outlook

UNITED NATIONS -- The United Nations Office of the Co-ordinator for Afghanistan, UNSMA and the World Bank

Political Developments

Despite talks in Tashkent, and mediation by the Government of Pakistan and other actors, fighting in Afghanistan continued in 1999--and became even more brutal than before. The stakes increased when the United Nations declared that sanctions would be imposed unless Osama bin Laden were handed over to the appropriate authorities. The chance of a negotiated end to the conflict before the year 2000 appears slim.

The "Six plus Two" Group convenes in Tashkent

On 19/20 July, the"Six plus Two" Group, meeting at the Deputy Foreign Minister level, convened in Tashkent. The Secretary- General's Special Envoy to Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, flew to the region to participate. For the first time in the group's two-year history, the warring parties were invited to attend the meeting as observers. Although nothing substantial was achieved in their talks, the two parties sat together for the first time since March when they met at Ashghabad.

adopts the Declaration and agrees on withdrawal of support

The Group adopted the Tashkent Declaration, which called on the warring parties to resume peace talks. However, the Taliban argued that the United Front should accept the Islamic Emirate as the basis of power sharing. In addition, the "Six plus Two" agreed to withdraw support for the Afghan warring parties.

while the SESG tours the region to prevent a major offensive.

After Tashkent, in an effort to maintain the momentum of intra-Afghan talks, Mr. Brahimi met the Taliban leadership in Kabul. He voiced the concern of the international community that the Taliban were about to initiate a summer offensive, aimed at crushing their remaining opponents inside Afghanistan. Sporadic artillery shelling on Kabul continued while the Special Envoy was in the city.

The Taliban face an uprising by the Hazaras in Bamiyan

Under the control of the Taliban for several months, Bamiyan fell on 21 April to the mainly Shia Hazara population of the region. The misbehaviour of the Taliban local authorities had fuelled the traditional sectarian dislike of the predominantly Sunni Pashtun Taliban. Since the Hazaras lacked strong leadership and co-ordination with and the support of other anti-Taliban groups, the Taliban were able to retake ground lost in Bamiyan by the following month.

and the initial plans for the Taliban summer offensive were disrupted.

Although it was only for a short period of time, the fall of Bamiyan disrupted one of the strategic supply routes for the northern provinces of Afghanistan and caused serious delay in the Taliban's preparations for a summer offensive.

The Taliban launch an offensive north of Kabul

One week after the Tashkent meeting, and only three days after the Special Envoy's departure from Kabul, the Taliban began a major offensive against the United Front in the Shomali plains north of Kabul. As in previous years, the alleged involvement of foreign nationals with the Taliban, especially Pakistanis and Arabs, raised concern when the Taliban started receiving reinforcements openly from madrassas in Afghanistan and Pakistan that were closed for the remainder of the summer.

but the United Front strikes back

Their initial military success in the Shomali plains enabled the Taliban to move close to the entrance of the Panjshir Valley, capturing the strategically important Bagram airbase. However, on 5 August the United Front launched a counter-offensive in the Shomali plains, causing heavy casualties among the rank and file of the Taliban forces and pushing back the front line more or less to the original positions prior to the launch of the Taliban offensive.

leaving the Taliban to attack more brutally than ever before.

Defeat in the Shomali plains encouraged the Taliban to adopt more brutal tactics. By 11 August, they launched a new offensive, this time advancing steadily and cautiously, while forcing the population to leave their homes and thoroughly demolishing the agricultural infrastructure and homes along the front line. The scorched earth policy of the Taliban, widely condemned by the international community, generated a large number of internally displaced persons, who moved to Kabul, into the Panjshir Valley, and even further north.

Fighting continues in northern Afghanistan

Northern areas of Kunduz province were captured by the Taliban in early August and then retaken by the United Front. There, the Taliban's aim was to cut the remaining narrow surface supply routes to the Panjshir Valley. Successive sorties of aerial bombardment against Taloqan since 25 September caused a high number of civilian casualties. Taliban forces managed to recapture the port city of Shir Khan Bandar and advance towards Taloqan. However, in late October, the balance shifted again as the United Front regained territory in Takhar, Kunduz, and Darra Suf, a move that preserved United Front supply lines.

as well as in eastern provinces.

In an attempt to draw off Taliban forces in the Shomali plains, the United Front opened new front lines in the eastern provinces of Kunar and Laghman. Despite gains in some areas, they were unable to maintain control over the region. The presence of Osama bin Laden increases pressure on the Taliban.

On 5 July, United States President Bill Clinton signed an executive order to impose unilateral sanctions on economic and financial transactions with the Taliban because of their harbouring of Osama bin Laden. The decision was followed in August by the freezing of Ariana Airlines' assets in US banks. The Taliban leadership condemned the US for its actions, while asserting that the effect on the Afghan economy would be minimal. By September, India terminated the air link between Kabul and Amritsar. Ariana then had only one international destination--Dubai.

but the Taliban stand up to the United States

In late August, the Taliban Chief Justice announced that the case against bin Laden had been closed for lack of supporting evidence. The Taliban repeatedly stated that, as a guest of the Afghan people, bin Laden was prohibited from operating from Afghan soil against any country, and that they would not extradite him to a third country.

while the UN announces sanctions will be imposed.

In October, the United Nations declared that sanctions would be imposed on the Taliban by November 14, if Osama bin Laden were not handed over to the appropriate authorities and terrorist camps shut down. Although limited in scope, the UN sanctions would close down the last international route of Ariana Airlines, freeze Taliban funds outside Afghanistan, and further ostracise the Taliban among the international community, shattering its hopes for eventual UN recognition. In late October, the Taliban searched for an honourable way out of the impasse.

Pakistan tries to promote peace talks

To the surprise of the "Six plus Two" Group and the United Nations, Pakistan launched a peace initiative of its own. In August, a Pakistani delegation twice met representatives of the United Front in Dushanbe, interspersed with a visit to Kandahar to meet Mullah Mohammad Omar. While the United Front remained sceptical of Pakistan's role as a mediator, the Taliban also did not respond positively. A second round in September also produced no concrete results.

while a strong bomb blast rocks Kandahar.

A strong bomb blast, apparently designed to kill Mullah Omar, occurred in the vicinity of his residence on August 24. Although the culprits have not been named or arrested to date, the Taliban have pointed an accusing finger at the 'enemies of the Islamic Emirate.' The blast effectively delayed the Taliban's response to Pakistan's peace initiative and also reduced the level of trust between the Taliban and the United Front.

Zahir Shah calls on Afghans to convene a Loya Jirga

In late June, the former King of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah, met in Rome with a group of Afghan intellectuals and political leaders who support the Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) process. This group suggested that the ex-King call for an emergency meeting of the Loya Jirga. On 26 September, Zahir Shah, through a radio broadcast, called on all Afghans, living inside and outside of Afghanistan, to accept this emergency meeting as the only means to solve the Afghan crisis.

while others are on their own.

Other gatherings of Afghans, such as that in Cyprus in the second half of September, were convened outside Afghanistan. In an effort to sabotage and disrupt the peace efforts by these Afghans, assassinations and assassination attempts against key political figures were carried out in Pakistan. Ahad Karzai, once a deputy-speaker of the Parliament and supporter of the ex-King, was assassinated in July while visiting Quetta.

The United Front announces a cabinet reshuffle

On the verge of the opening of the 54th General Assembly of the UN, the United Front announced the formation of its ten-member political committee and a cabinet reshuffle. Both bodies were designed to have a broader scope of representation drawn from the four major ethnic groups of Afghanistan, which made the appointments unique.

with little success in broadening domestic support.

Nevertheless, with their limited political activity and lack of territorial control inside Afghanistan, the United Front was unable to gain the attention and support of the Afghan masses. Moreover, statements of discontent arose from within its own political camp. Arguing that they control over 90% of Afghanistan, the Taliban reasserted their right to be recognised and criticised the UN for its continued recognition of the Islamic State of Afghanistan.

A military coup in Pakistan

In reaction to sectarian violence in Pakistan, the government of Nawaz Sharif for the first time pointed the finger at elements in Afghanistan for de-stabilising Pakistan. This change in the Pakistani position to Afghanistan was followed rapidly by a military coup on October 12 in which Chief of Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf seized control of the country, deposing Nawaz Sharif and dismissing the Parliament. Setting no time limit on his intended tenure, the new Chief Executive called for a representative broad-based government in Afghanistan. In addition, the new administration began to exercise firmer control over cross border commercial transactions.

is followed by a shake-up in the Taliban command structure.

Mullah Omar continued to hold the reins of power while effecting major changes in virtually all portfolios. The key appointment was the posting of Mawlawi Mutawakkel, former spokesman for Mullah Omar, as foreign minister. Coming about two months after the attempt on Mullah Omar's life, the changes are clearly an attempt by the Taliban leader to consolidate and ensure his continued authority and the unity of the Taliban movement.

Negotiations are unlikely to resume before winter

So far, the Taliban are determined to win the war, which they assume would gain them recognition and a representative seat in the UN. The United Front, on the other hand, are not ready to give up their struggle. The chances of bringing the Taliban and the United Front to the negotiation table appear to be extremely unlikely before the end of autumn, unless the inflow of arms and support could be brought under control.

as the Secretary-General talks of reviewing the peace formula for Afghanistan

At the 54th General Assembly, the Secretary- General raised questions over the usefulness of the "Six plus Two" Group, pointing out that they have been unable to halt some of its own members' involvement in Afghan affairs. By the turn of the century, the formula for bringing peace to Afghanistan will have to be reviewed again.

where sources of instability for the region are deeply rooted.

The Afghan civil war is gradually affecting countries beyond Afghanistan's borders. Issues such as drug trafficking, the network of international terrorism and the spread of extremism are at the core of these concerns. Events in the Central Asian Republics of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, as well as Daghestan and Chechenya in the Russian Federation, are symptoms of this regional instability. The absence of a responsible central government in Afghanistan, at present and for the foreseeable future, indicates that these problems are unlikely to be dealt with. Afghanistan will continue as the source of instability in the region.

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