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Afghanistan Outlook

UNITED NATIONS -- The United Nations Office of the Co-ordinator for Afghanistan, UNSMA and the World Bank

Editorial

As the peace process stalled again in 1999, the Afghan parties to the conflict began to take the war to scale, assisted by outside actors who provided military, political, and financial support. Although large parts of the country remained relatively peaceful, the stakes increased as the United Front initially lost ground in the battles in Bamiyan, Shomali, and northeastern Afghanistan. Desperate to keep supply lines open, the United Front succeeded in regaining their most crucial territories by the time of this writing and gained ground in Darra Souf. In all of these battles this year, civilians were the real losers. While loss of life has been contained, loss of assets and livelihoods has been enormous. Both parties are responsible for violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, with the Taliban being responsible for the worst abuses. With growing concern, the world has watched the Afghan conflict affect countries beyond its borders: unrest in Central and South Asia, refugees in Iran and Pakistan and an international diaspora, a mushrooming narcotics trade and Osama bin Laden. The United Nations sanctions slapped onto Afghanistan, although mild, are an attempt to rein in the spill over of transnational violence. Widely recognised as the single most important outside supporter, Pakistan began distancing itself from the Taliban in the autumn while Nawaz Sharif was still in power. While it is not clear whether Pakistan was acting because of internal or external compulsions, this public pull back marked a shift in Pakistan's perception of its national interest.

This shift in Pakistani policy seems to have continued when the military assumed power in Pakistan in mid-October. Despite a few calm and relatively non-committal public statements on Afghanistan by General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan began to exercise an unusual degree of control over the flow of goods from and to Afghanistan. Exports to Afghanistan are traditionally regulated through route permits that specify the quantity and kind of items transported. Items not covered by the permits such as wheat flour were, nevertheless, making their way across the border in significant amounts. However, the Pakistani government has both restricted the number of route permits, and increased border controls. Under pressure to increase tax revenues, limping from loan to loan, losing significant amounts of sales tax and customs duties, Pakistan began discussions with Afghanistan on the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement (ATTA).

While the sanctions against Ariana airlines are not expected to have a profound or devastating effect on the economic situation in Afghanistan, or on the vulnerable population, the slow down in the transit trade, which is worth billions of dollars each year, will affect a wider range of people. WFP field staff based in Kabul recorded a 70% decrease in the number of commercial trucks unloading there during October and November. This decrease in trade will also diminish the coffers of the Taliban, who tax smuggling as well as the drug trade. Shortly after the sanctions came into effect, Iran opened its border for the first time in a year. Some observers believe that Afghans will find alternate routes (e.g. Iran, Central Asia) to make up for losses if the curtailment of the ATTA continues, but it is doubtful whether these alternate routes would fully compensate.

Since Afghanistan is a cereal deficit country, one of the most essential cross border commodities it receives from Pakistan is wheat. The steady flow of wheat from Pakistan is the reason why wheat prices in Afghanistan, although high, retain any semblance of stability. Cities, especially Kabul and Kandahar, are especially dependent on Pakistani wheat, which constitutes 40 to 50% of the supply. In short, in addition to the military aid Pakistan reportedly provides to the Taliban, as well as the enormous economic benefit to Afghanistan derived from the transit trade and narcotics trade through Pakistan, Afghanistan is dependent on Pakistan to be able to feed its population.

As pointed out in this issue of Outlook, food security depends on both availability of and access to food. Given Afghanistan's dependence on imports from Pakistan, border controls can affect both. First, Pakistan may choose to limit the amount of wheat going into Afghanistan, which would decrease availability, and second, the curtailment of the transit trade could mean a reduction in income for workers associated with the trade, and hence inflation and restricted access to food. The Taliban are reportedly attempting to buy wheat elsewhere (e.g. Central Asia), which is not likely to completely offset this reduction of imports from Pakistan. If this situation does not improve, the proportion of the population vulnerable to food insecuriy is likely to increase dramatically.

A quarter of a million people have been displaced in the course of 1999. Sixteen thousand of them--the population of a small town--are still sheltering in the ex-Soviet compound in Kabul. Some of the displaced in various areas have returned, but others have not been able to or have not dared to do so. Many of them have lost almost everything they owned: rebuilding must begin anew. Whatever the outcome of the current Afghanistan-Pakistan trade discussions, it is clear that the Afghan people have another hard winter ahead, especially in Kabul and the areas affected by this year's fighting

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